How much would pay for automation, theater, surveillance and IT services offering (hardware, software, lifestyle programming, digital content and support services)

March 24th, 2009

Here are a series a data points and graphs from a survey that I recently distributed on LinkedIn.com to get a rough idea of the markets ability to support a full featured, turn key Home Digital Entertainment and Automation system.   Here is what I included in the description of the offering:

The system functionality is pretty much the same for all price points , but the quality, size, finish, services/programming and specs are different for each price category, i.e. like a car it has four wheels and goes from point a to b, but can have different trim, features, options and service levels such as 8 cylinder vs. 4, cloth vs. leather seating and/or free loaner with service.  Capacity, size, quality and service are all properties that scale up for the more expense offering.  I did not create a matrix of quality to scale (meaning cheaper components for a larger installation, e.g. lower quality components in a higher quantity)

The dollar amount is a onetime cost, the services are bundled into the cost.

Here are the core features:

  • Home Automation – Control Lights, HVAC, surveillance cameras, appliances plus programming
  • Digital Entertainment – PC based DVR, multi room sound, digital picture frames, multi room video, projector and large screen plus other features
  • Surveillance – Multiple cameras, still photo and video, motion detection, remote monitoring and alerts plus more features
  • Training, Programming and Help Desk Services – Hosted WWW site, Backup/Restore, Digital archives (all assets, pictures, dvd’s, cd’s, etc..), help desk, training and programming assistance

Here are the survey questions:

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Overall results

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The distribution here very much supports my plan’s business model and demographic that I am targeting in both my go to market effort and bill of materials (Product blend of hardware, software, programming and content).  The 23% “interested but needs more info” is encouraging as it indicates to me that I will get the same distribution for price points if we can convert interest into a sale.  The 19% “Not interested” makes perfect sense to me and is also encouraging as it indicates that 81% of the respondents are interested in the offering. 

By Job Title

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This graph is even more encouraging as the sweet spot, the $15,000 offering with 1 year of service appeals to the small business owner and professional managers – that is the biggest market.  But even more encouraging is the distribution amongst C-Level & VP’s, as that is the executive sale and thus a customer that can afford a higher priced combination of goods and services.  The most encouraging trend here is that 29% would opt in for the $25,000 systems with 2 years of service and %29 percent expressed interest, thus they could be converted into customers.  This result surprised me as that indicates %60 percent of the potential customers in this income bracket would buy the higher priced system with a longer term service contract.  My business plan actually projects that we will make MORE money on services year over year than what we made year 1 on margins from the initial sale and implementation of the solution.  The spread in “All Other” is an indication of a  finding that stands out  in the next graph, “By Age”, which indicates that a large percentage of the 24-35 age group know what they want, will buy, but are straddling the fence about the services component of the offering.  The correlation I am making here is that the 24-35 group makes up the bulk of the “All other” silo, and thus the reason for the 60% distribution split between “Interested” and “Not Interested”

 

By Age

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Finally this distribution is very interesting as it tells me that in the 25-34 year old age silo, the high number of “not interested” confirms three things for me:

 

    1. That the 34% “Not interested” indicates that there is probably a high number of “DIY’s” or “Do it yourselfers” in that category. 
    2. It also tells me that these folks already know what they can do with PC centric Entertainment and Automation systems, or know that they can purchase the goods and piece them together on their own, but are tempted by the offer and want to know more.  Content is what will be the tipping point here to close the sale.
    3. Finally it is clear that the remaining %66 percent are all price sensitive, but will move on the $15,000 system. 

    If you draw parallels to other big ticket items that are purchased in this group at that price point (ATV’s, Watercraft, Snow mobiles, household appliance upgrades, traditional A/V equipment/ furniture/content/installation), you can also postulate that they would make this purchase on credit, thus financing is an important component of the business model.   Lastly, the market strategy to get to these consumers will be very much based on psychology/perception, value and savings, so working the whole “Wow, this a way cool and a must have, get rid of your cable, reduce monthly cash burn on telecom costs, reduce insurance costs, decrease power consumption, etc.. lends itself to making the sale and rolling that “savings” into monthly payment for the $15K solution with recurring content update fees amortized into the payment.

One other thought here is that I now understand why the Life|Ware – Best Buy – Microsoft Entertainment and Automation offering at this price point failed in its first iteration (i say that as if they listen up, dust it off and re package/market tactically it will succeed as the numbers/demand support it).  Here’s my litany of the why not and how to :

 

    1. Why not (First Iteration)
      • They relied on Geek Squad to deliver and that is NOT the right demographic for a Geek Squad branded service given the DIY nature of the 25-34 age group
      • That they never rolled out an “Experience Center” to show case the solution and they relied on the existing channel and media vs. “boots on the ground”.  Best Buy has PC show rooms and Magnolia, but nothing to target or showcase the synthesis Plus (Plus being the automation, entertainment A/V combination) of the product offering.  ITS A BIG GAP THEY DID NOT FILL/SPAN
      • That Geek Squad is delivery and NOT sales.  And Best Buy Business services do not sell direct to consumers
      • That Best Buy, Magnolia sales cannot/do not sell to the 25-34 group as that group knows better to get Big Box deals online and or shop for value
      • That they failed to do effective multi-channel marketing in this demographic as they were too focused on the custom installer channel and the 35-54 age bracket, and tried to market and woo their way into a tapped out, dysfunctional channel that is wrestling with change they are not equipped to manage.
    2. How to (Second Iteration with or without Best Buy :)
      • Dust off the Best Buy RV loaded with Life|Ware, Media Center, Home Server and Xbox and do what Red Bull is doing all over the country – Market/Co Brand at the X-Games, Nascar, Music Concerts, Burning Man, College sporting Events, Winter Resorts.   Look at the big ticket items these folks are buying and then go to the events where this items are used.  Also, target the events attended by the 25-34 year olds
      • Get kiosks at malls (Hp and Dell do this) or better yet create Kiosks within Retail stores and man these kiosks with IDEAS (Innovative Digital Entertainment and Automation Specialist) who are local dealers or advisors, much in the way that a Lancôme Beauty Advisor works a section of a cosmetics counter at Macy’s or Marshal Fields.
      • Invest in showrooms or Experience centers in key demographics for the 25-35’s,  New York, Boston, Chicago and Atlanta (Hmmm… exactly where Microsoft has MTC… what do you know? And staff then with partners (the “young Turks” revolting against the status quo, the CE industry and Cable monopolies) who do not have the capital to make these investment, but who have the shared vision and the three “P’’s” – Plans, Passion and Persistence to promote this cause/agenda
      • Bundle the solutions with content to showcase not just features and form but foresight, meaning content is the king going forward.  And each system will be pre-loaded with content and affiliate hooks into a legitimate alternative delivery and supply side (the internet or the “ether” via regional/metropolitan hot spots, like Baltimore and soon Chicago).

    Now some of this is neither novel nor untried, but let’s do it again.  The numbers that I collected and trends derived beg for a second go at it, but this time with new hope and fueled by hunger.  Like me – I AM HUNGRY :)

As for the 35-54 age bracket – green fields.  The 42% piece of the pie, the $15K sale is a no brainer, and the rest is undecided or ready for the up sell.  Here however the delivery channel is much more complex as it is the battle ground for existing custom integrator that are trying to make the transition from black box custom to PC centric.  I am not even going to comment on that silo for now as it really is a mess.  What you will find however, just like with the morphing phenomena going on with generation merge in social networking sites, everyone, regardless of age will flock into the Experience centers.  So from that perspective, if the experience centers work for the 25-35, then so to will they work for the 35-54 group, just like an Apple store.

 

So there ya go.  My rant on the topic.  email me at ray.casey@arestar.com if you have questions, or if you feel compelled to correct my grammar ;)

ray.casey Marketing

Rumors about the "Death of Microsoft Media Center…" are GREATLY EXAGGERATED and FUD!

April 9th, 2008

FUD, or “Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt” is something that opponents of Microsoft have been perpetuating for years.   I recall back in the mid 90’s when I worked for Microsoft Consulting Services in the Financial Services practice based in New York, there where numerous instances when SUN, IBM and RICH (Now part of Reuters) POOH POOH’d the use of Windows NT as a viable platform to replace a “A Trader’s workstation Information Distribution & Display System”  Essentially this was a big, ugly and expensive Video Switch ala what A/V integrators are pushing on customers TODAY in 2008 to distribute Audio Visual throughout a home.   Here is a clip of a news report from 1995 where such a A/V video switch system was installed at Bankers Trust:

1995-05-08
Vol 10 No 16
DATA CONSUMERS

Bankers Improves Video Switch For IDB Prices

In an effort to provide some 200 traders with better access to interdealer-broker price screens, Bankers Trust Co. has opted to beef up its 12-year-old video switch in New York. The bank made the decision to keep its switch not only because some IDB data is unavailable in digital format, but also because the bank is unwilling, or unable, to develop digital feedhandlers for certain IDBs whose services are digitally delivered.

Here is the full link Bankers Improves Video Switch For IDB Prices 

They are referring to a “technology” that was “12 Years old” in 1995.  That means it was implemented (not designed) in 1983!  So why are A/V pundits pushing A/V “solutions” on consumers  that is OVER 20 years old?

The irony here is that today’s current “Subject Matter Experts” or SME’s for Home A/V and automation are using the same ANTIQUATED technology and approach for home Audio/Video Entertainment and Technology that other’s pushed in the market over 20 years ago.  Furthermore they are creating FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt) about the ability of the Window’s platform (Vista Ultimate, Windows Home Server and XBoX 360) to handle these tasks.  

THAT IS RUBBISH and also a FALLACY  or better yet an out right Non Sequitur  (Jim Colton, my high school Latin teacher, god rest his soul would be proud of me)

To get technical in syllogistic logic that is a “Fallacy ad Hominem” or an attack against the credibility of Vista vs. an argument that addresses the facts, e.g. Vista is a fine platform for this effort.

Long story short, sans the “Mr Spock” logic argument, the storyline used by A/V vendors and service providers is ILLOGICAL and that is something that us technology people do not take kindly to!

To bring this whole argument around, If you are fortunate enough to get a tour of  the trading floor for Goldman Sachs, or Lehman Brothers or Smith Barney, the fact is that YOU WILL RARELY or NEVER see a dumb video terminal running off  a video switch to provide market data feeds or core systems to traders.  What you WILL SEE is Windows XP workstations running multiple screens that display access to these systems.   I know this to be fact as I was there at the creation back in 1995 when insightful IT managers knew the best way to do this was NOT with A/V switches, black boxes and miles and miles of EXPENSIVE, ANNOYING and UGLY cables managed by Union cable pullers and Telcom people (”Cable Monkeys” as us application guys like to label them, rightfully so !).  So ask yourself…

“So why would you want to take this A/V approach for your high end home automation/entertainment system?”

The answer here is that YOU DO NOT WANT TO DO THIS.  So do not buy into the FUD and start asking then the questions that A/V and Non Microsoft based home Automation vendors CANNOT answer.   If Windows is good enough to run on ATM machines at CitiBank ATM booting into Windows XP and also to run a traders personal workstation (Ala most day traders and almost all the major brokerage houses) then why shouldn’t it be positioned to run Home Entertainment and Home Automation systems for you home, yacht and plane?  There is no answer other than the truth would contradict their bullcrap and FUD and would undermine their current business model that is based upon expensive, closed, proprietary systems connected by miles of useless cable and connectors that consumers are paying for out of the nose (like a nose bleed :) .  Don’t even get me started with the “programming” that these vendors do as it is a joke also.  That is a subject that I will talk about more in another post…

So back on point.   WHY THE FUD about Media Center?  Today’s ultimate Home Entertainment/Home Automation system is very similar architecturally to how all the most tech savvy Brokerage houses are deploying trading system today.   They have a centralized Window’s based system that distributes applications, content (like market data feeds) and Video/Audio (Streaming media and Audio) all over a network, either wirelessly or hardwired to PC’s and handheld PDA’s.   At the desktop these traders are using Windows XP so that they can use systems and applications they are familiar with (Like Office Apps, inter alia) and so that they can integrate that with their PocketPC phones and/or Blackberry.   This is identical to what we can do today at home with Windows Media Center/Home Server (The centralized host) and Media Center Extenders (connected to our TV’s and LCD panels) and PocketPC and/or Windows Mobile Phones.   If that is the case, then again, ask yourself…

“If it is good enough for a Wall Street broker at work who is trading billions of dollars in securities, or ATM machines that are dispensing billions of dollars of cash, why is it not good enough for me at home?”

And again, the answer is FUD.  This FUD is being perpetuated by all the A/V product vendors,  Home Automation products vendors and service providers that sell and maintain these products.  They have a vested interest in protecting their turf and by keeping consumers in the dark.  They are also trying to protect closed systems, expensive cables (Who doesn’t hate cable?) and arcane, cryptic programming.  They are perpetuating this by claiming that PC’s cannot do this job and the Microsoft products are not stable or robust enough to do the job.  And that is BULL CRAP!   And truth is that these A/V vendors are SCARED FOR THEIR livelihood and are taking desperate measures to discredit the PC centric approach, much in the way that SUN, RICH, Oracle and IBM tried to do the same to Microsoft in the 90’s.   This pisses me off and I am on a personal campaign to STOP THE FUD!  The first part of the FUD I am looking to dispel is that “MEDIA CENTER IS DEAD!”

In the meantime take a look at this link which gives a simple BOM (Bill of Materials) for a PC centric system that I installed 4 years ago (Yes 4 years ago!).  The technology for a new system is EVEN BETTER.

Legacy: Best Hardware Set for Windows Media Center and Home Automation

Legacy: Best Features/Application Set for Windows Media Center and Home Automation

Legacy: Best Operational Processes and Procedures for Windows Media Center and Home Automation

I will write more on this over the next few weeks, with emphasis on the “Best CURRENT state Home Automation System”, but for now I just wanted to get this thread started and to call out LEGACY systems based upon Windows XP, Media Center and off the shelf home automation products.   Stay tuned in for more as I will personally dispel this myth and others about Microsoft Media Center and the Microsoft Home Automation abilities over the next few weeks by pointing out not only what you can do with these products at home, but also contrast that with what Microsoft has done with its products in the ENTERPRISE to demonstrate that the platform is MORE THAN ROBUST to deal with Audio/Video streaming, Home Entertainment and most importantly, HOME AUTOMATION.   With emphasis on NOT having to buy expensive, proprietary, single use BLACK BOX equipment that requires highly specialized service/support and miles of useless CABLES, SWITCHES, CONNECTORS, ad nauseam…

ray.casey Series , , , , , , ,

Part 2 – The Art of the possible for a Marine based Media Center Solution

March 25th, 2008

Outline for Part 2 of the Series

  1. Media Center running in the Cabin, Canopy and aggregating applications/systems
    1. Phone, TV, Internet and Automation
    2. Diagnostics, Navigation, Logging, Instrumentation
  2. Media Center Communications
    1. Terrestrial and/or Satellite communications
    2. Ship to Shore WifiMAX network/Internet mesh
  3. Media Center Entertainment
    1. Digital Library for Pictures, Videos and Audio
    2. OTA Terrestrial HDTV
    3. Streaming content, IPTV and Internet Content (like msnbc.com)
    4. Downloadable content, HDTV downloads
  4. Media Center Navigation, Weather and Diagnostic
    1. Real time heads up for GPS and Marine Charts
    2. Real time weather in multiple locations
    3. Applications to monitor Trip log, manifest, crew and instrumentation
  5. Hand Held PC to tie it all together
    1. Wireless remote
    2. Wireless Communications (Internet, VoIP, blue tooth)

Other Content (Picture, Video, Links, Quotes)

  1. Stills
    1. Hand held PC.
    2. A close up of the cockpit
  2. Video
    1. Media Center Applications
    2. Media Center Server and Panel
  3. Links
    1. www.exceptionalinnovation
    2. www.microsoft.com/windows/products/winfamily/mediacenter/default.mspx
    3. www.arestar.com

ray.casey Marine, Series , , ,

Part 1 – An unsophisticated media system for a very sophisticated boat

March 24th, 2008

Outline for Current state Marine systems:

  1. Cost of current state Audio/Entertainment, computing, communications. 
    1. Select a specific size (50 foot)
    2. Interview Captain, Owner and Broker
    3. Get best online catalog site
  2. Indexed list for all components for each category for inventory
    1. Communications
    2. Entertainment
    3. Safety
    4. Security
    5. Navigation
    6. Productivity station
  3. Classify standard "current state" bundle (or BOM of items)
    1. Vendors
    2. Price Points
    3. Feature Set
  4. Determine costs to replace and install all items in each bundle new (set budget for future state)
    1. Create list from online catalog
    2. Create price book
  5. Determine contrasts with PC centric system – critique each "bundle"
    1. VENN breakdown of features into systems
    2. Compare costs across bundles
  6. Conclusion about current state and segue into Part 2 "The Art of the Possible".

Other Content (Picture, Video, Links, Quotes)

  1. Stills
    1. Sextant
    2. A 50 foot boat
    3. A close up of the cockpit
  2. Video
    1. NA
    2. NA
  3. Links

ray.casey Marine, Series